by Web Editor | Mar 19, 2018 | News
Forisk projects U.S. softwood lumber consumption of 49.8 BBFT in 2018. This represents a 3.7% increase from our 2017 forecast of 48.1 BBFT and is 5.4% higher than 2016 actuals of 47.3 BBFT. Softwood lumber consumption increased every year since 2009, but remained 26.4% below the 2005 consumption high of 64.2 BBFT. U.S. softwood lumber production is forecasted to increase 5.0% to 35.6 billion board feet in 2018. The South drives this growth with production expected to rise 6.4% for the year, reaching 19.5 BBFT. This would be a new high for the region, surpassing the 19.0 BBFT of production in 2005. In the Base Case, the South’s share of national lumber production increases 0.8% to 55% in 2018.
We project U.S. softwood lumber self-sufficiency to reach 71.4% in 2018 as imports level off, and U.S. softwood production increases relative to consumption. We expect net imports to remain stable in 2018 due to physical constraints on Canadian lumber producers and their inability to grow exports to the U.S.: raging wildfires; stagnant softwood lumber capacity; increasing domestic softwood consumption; two new tariffs imposed on Canadian softwood lumber imports in 2017; and reductions in annual allowable cuts.
In the Forisk Base Case, total structural panel consumption increases from 31.2 billion square feet in 2017 to 36.6 billion square feet by 2022, increasing at a compound annual growth rate of 3.3%. OSB consumption is forecasted to rise 3.1% over 2017, while plywood consumption is forecast to increase 2.1%. For context, our October 2017 forecast was 3.5% lower than actuals, while our initial January 2017 forecast came in at 0.9% below actuals.
Each year we update a multi-phased study for estimating U.S. structural panel consumption. We test variables such as housing starts, GDP, population and others. Outputs from all approaches – regardless of the approach, variables, or form – tend to correlate highly with each other. Simpler models performed better; our final model had an R-squared of 0.97. Then, we evaluate results of our model relative to history and research by the USDA Forest Service and APA-The Engineered Wood Association prior to incorporating the projections into price forecasts for timber and delivered logs across the U.S.
From FORISK Consulting: https://forisk.com/blog/2018/03/15/forisk-research-quarterly-frq-excerpt-2018-lumber-structural-panel-projections/
by Web Editor | Jan 23, 2017 | News
Composite Panel Association Reports Panel Shipments End Year Slightly Below 2015
The Composite Panel Association’s December Industry Snapshot Report indicates that North American composite panel shipments of particleboard and MDF totaled 5.511 billion square feet for the year 2016, a slight decrease of 0.9 percent below 2015.
December shipments totaled 412 million square feet (MMSF) (3/4-inch basis), down 1.5 percent compared to the same month a year ago.
Particleboard shipments totaled 236 MMSF (3/4-inch basis) in December, and were 3.305 BSF for the year 2016, coming in 1.4 percent below 2015. MDF shipments totaled 176 MMSF (3/4-inch basis) for the month and 2.206 MMSF for 2016, essentially flat compared to 2015.
Capitalization rate for particleboard production was primarily in the 65 to 75 percent range for 2016. Particleboard shipments for both the United States and Canada have remained about the same for the past four years. Shipments are extrapolated based on data received from 95.2 percent of the U.S. industry and 100 percent of Canadian industry.
The Industry Snapshot Report is published by the 15th of each month and is available to members on CPA’s web site. The 2016 North American Shipments and Downstream Market Report will be published in May and provide a comprehensive analysis of industry shipments.
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by Web Editor | Oct 12, 2016 | News
From: Panel World Staff
A report conducted by Forest Economic Advisors and released by Composite Panel Association says that in 2015, the total (direct, indirect and induced) impacts of U.S. CPA-member composite panel manufacturing on the U.S. economy were $7.05 billion in output, employment of more than 22,500 and wages of $1.45 billion. The Canadian composite mills’ impact on the Canadian economy were $3.41 billion (Can), employment of almost 11,500 and $724 (Can) in wages.
“Economic Impact of U.S. and Canadian Composite Panel Mills” also reveals that in 2015 37 U.S. CPA-member mills had sales of $2.30 billion and 12 Canadian mills had sales of $1.34 billion (Can).
The report estimates that U.S. and Canadian composite panel facilities consumed 8.3 million dry tons of residual fiber in 2015, out of total residual supply of 76 million dry tons. On a regional basis, composite panel mills in the U.S. South consumed the most wood fiber, accounting for 2.8 million dry tons, 34% of the total in 2015.
Other findings:
— Resin costs account for 30% of composite panel production costs.
— Energy costs account for 10-20% of costs.
— Value-added shipments accounted for 31% of North American particleboard ships in 2014 and 18% of MDF shipments. For particleboard, the biggest value-added product was thermally fused laminate panels, accounting for 66% of value-added particleboard shipments.
— In 2015, the 42 composite panel mills operating in the U.S. and 12 in Canada had total capacity of 8.15 billion SF (five of these U.S. mills were not CPA members).
— In 2015, North American composite panel shipments hit 5.97 billion SF, 31% below the pre-recession mark of 8.64 billion SF, but a gradual improvement over 5.23 billion SF in 2009.
Read more in the November issue of Panel World magazine…
by Web Editor | Apr 13, 2016 | News
Increased cabinets and furniture demand will continue to drive the growth of decorative laminates in the United States 2.5 percent annually, reaching 11.6 billion square feet —$6.8 billion — in 2020, according to new research by The Freedonia Group.
According to the Decorative Laminates study by the Cleveland-based research firm, the use of these decorative surfaces will grow concurrent with projected increases in domestic manufacturing of cabinets, furniture, retail fixtures, wall paneling and other products made from composite wood. Cabinets and furniture are the two largest markets for laminates in 2015, and through 2020, the cabinet market is projected to post the more rapid gains.
“Increases in the number of new homes built through 2020 will provide opportunities, since many of these new homes will include stock cabinets, which are often made using saturated paper and other low-pressure laminates on an engineered wood substrate,” says analyst Pamela Safarek.
Low-pressure laminates, which account for more than 80 percent of the market, will post the fastest average annual gains through 2020, Freedonia says, adding that “the cost advantages of these products outweigh the durability benefits of higher priced high-pressure laminates,” particularly in the cabinets and store fixtures market.
High pressure laminates are used in many horizontal applications, including flooring, countertops and desktops. “Sales of high-pressure laminates will continue to depend on their advanced performance characteristics, such as long-term durability and greater resistance to scratches,” Freedonia says.
From Woodworking Network: https://www.woodworkingnetwork.com/news/woodworking-industry-news/us-laminates-hit-68-billion-2020-cabinets-spur-demand
by Web Editor | Jan 25, 2016 | News
Demand For Engineered Wood Products To Grow Through 2020
Engineered wood product output will grow between 25% and 33% by 2020, according to the Fall 2015 Forecast by APA – The Engineered Wood Association. That should bode well for LBM dealers as the housing market continues its gradual recovery.
APA’s 2015-2020 Market Outlook for structural panels and engineered wood products forecasts that demand for North American-made structural panels will increase 21% by 2020, from 31.5 billion square feet to 38 billion, largely in response the increase in housing starts to 1.5 million units by the end of the decade.
APA’s forecast for an uptick in demand for structural panels and engineered wood doesn’t surprise J.D. Saunders, the 2014-2015 chairman of the National Lumber and Building Material Dealers Association (NLBMDA) and vice president of Economy Lumber in Campbell, Calif. “We’ve already experienced an increase in demand, and part of that is attributable to the recovery of the housing market,” he says.
In fact, APA’s Market Outlook notes that although the U.S. homeownership rate is expected to trend lower through 2020 as interest rates rise, the improving economy could push household growth as high as 1.3 million per year over the next three to five years.
Several factors are dampening the potential for stronger growth in homebuilding. Young would-be homeowners are delaying marriage as they pay off historically high levels of student debt and their projected incomes are unlikely to keep pace with the rise in mortgage payments as home prices and interest rates rise. In addition, first-time home-buyers continue to struggle to meet strict mortgage lending standards to qualify for home loans. Many of the households they form in the near future are likely to be living in rented apartments, as described in the APA report.
From LBM Journal: lbmjournal.com.
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The monthly Panel World Industry Newsletter reaches over 3,000 who represent primary panel production operations.
Panel World is delivered six times per year to North American and international professionals, who represent primary panel production operations. Subscriptions are FREE to qualified individuals.
Complete the online form so we can direct you to the appropriate Sales Representative. Contact us today!
