Norbord Posts Record Year In 2017

Panel producer Norbord has posted record earnings in 2017 for its worldwide business. The company also achieved record production at nine of its 15 mills, while the Inverness OSB expansion project was also completed.

Peter Wijnbergen, Norbord’s president and CEO, described 2017 as an outstanding year, with record adjusted earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortisation (EBITDA) of US$672m. “US housing starts continued to improve, led by stronger growth in the single-family segment, driving increased North American OSB demand and prices,” he said. “Our European business had another solid year due to record sales volumes and improved prices for all our panel products across our key markets.”

He highlighted “great momentum” moving into 2018, with demand in all its core markets remaining strong.

“Meanwhile, our European business is poised for improved earnings next year as OSB substitution for plywood drives accelerated demand growth in our core UK and German markets.”

In Europe, shipments increased 5% over the prior year, with its mills running at 99% of capacity in 2017. In local currency terms, full-year average panel prices improved 11% from 2016.

From Timber Trades Journal: https://www.ttjonline.com/news/strong-panels-markets-boost-norbord-earnings-6046604/

Moody’s: Wood Product Growth Supports 2018 Stable Outlook

The likelihood of strong profits from the wood products business, alongside higher prices and growth in paper packaging from increased e-commerce demand, will help to offset the secular declines in the printing and writing paper segment, says Moody’s Investors Service in its annual sector outlook published recently. As a result, the outlook for the global paper and forest products sector will remain stable in 2018.

“The stable outlook for paper and forest products globally next year is underpinned by an expected 2%-4% growth of our rated paper and forest products companies, as strength in the wood products and paper packaging subsectors offset decreased demand for commodity paper as the shift to digital-first alternatives continues,” says Ed Sustar, a Moody’s Senior Vice President and author of the report.

On a subsector basis, the positive outlook for wood products and timberland is buoyed by improving strong end-market demand for timber, lumber, oriented strand board (OSB) and engineered wood products as US housing starts increase about 6%, or approximately 1.28 million units, in 2018.

Bolstered by the robust demand emanating from the US homebuilding market, average lumber prices are expected to remain strong, with increased production capacity aligning to support the demand, Moody’s says. Nevertheless, analysts caution that the tight lumber markets will allow countervailing anti-dumping duties assessed on Canadian lumber exported to the US to be passed on to consumers. The issuers most expected to benefit from a combination of higher lumber prices and little-to-no lumber tariffs include Potlatch Corporation, Georgia-Pacific, Weyerhaeuser Company and Rayonier Inc.

From Moody’s Investors Service: https://www.moodys.com/research/Moodys-Wood-product-growth-supports-2018-stable-outlook-offsetting-commodity–PR_377021

Structural Panel Numbers Go Up

From: Panel World Staff

While housing starts in the U.S. ran at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.17 million units in the second quarter, and Canadian housing starts ran at 198,000 units, North American structural panel production and apparent consumption rose 6% and 6.6%, respectively, in the second quarter compared to the first quarter. Relative to the second quarter of 2015, North American structural panel production was up 6.5%, and consumption increased 8.1%, according to data reported by APA—The Engineered Wood Assn.

Compared to the first quarter of 2016, North American glulam production rose 4.7% in the second quarter. I-joist production increased 4.1% and LVL output rose 3.9%. On a year ago quarter basis, glulam production was up 6.7%, while I-joist and LVL production increased 4.5% and 9.4%, respectively.

OSB production in North America increased 6.5% in the second quarter versus the first quarter, and was up 7.8% from the second quarter of 2015. First half production totaled 10.775 billion SF, up 7.5% from the first half of 2015.

North American plywood production was up 4.9% in the second quarter versus the first quarter, and was up 3.9% from the
second quarter of 2015. Plywood production in the first half of 2016 was 1.2% greater than the first half of 2015. Led by a 7.4% increase in the South, U.S. plywood production jumped 5% in the second quarter versus the first quarter, and was up 4.6% from the second quarter of 2015. Canadian production increased 4.9% in the second quarter, and was up 0.6% from the second quarter of 2015.

Read more on this in the July 2016 issue of Panel World

Norbord Riding The Rising Wave Of OSB Sales

For years, it was known as the ugly duckling, cheaper alternative to plywood. One design maven described it as “like the turkey loaf of building materials.” But oriented strand board – OSB for short – has come into its own over the past 3 1/2 decades as a major player in North American wood-frame housing construction and is increasingly used for industrial and other applications.

Structural OSB panels – made of wood strands that are resin-bonded under high pressure and heat – are mostly used as floor, roofing or wall substrate in home building. They’re also getting play these days on fashionable interior-decoration websites as a “shabby-chic” finishing material.

Capitalizing on OSB’s rise like no other forest-products company is Toronto-based Norbord Inc. Norbord, once a diversified forestry company, has shed assets over the years and focused on OSB. Now boasting annual sales in the $1.5-billion (U.S.) range and a market capitalization of about $2.4-billion (Canadian), it bills itself as the world’s largest producer of OSB.

The $763-million acquisition in 2014 of Vancouver-based Ainsworth Lumber Co. Ltd. gave Norbord – whose operations were concentrated in the U.S. southeast – a strong presence in Western Canada as well as a foothold in the promising Japanese market.

Right now, the steadily growing number of housing starts in the United States is giving Norbord a big boost, and low-key, media-shy chief executive officer Peter Wijnbergen says there are major growth opportunities in Europe and Asia.

From The Globe And Mail: https://www.theglobeandmail.com/report-on-business/forest-products-firm-norbord-riding-the-rising-wave-of-osb-sales/article30985989/

U.S. Housing Starts Grew Steadily In 2015

The U.S. Census Bureau & the Department of Housing & Urban Development released its December and total 2015 statistics on new residential starts in the U.S. There were no real surprises with the data, but predicting U.S. housing starts has been virtually impossible for analysts and economists.

WOOD MARKETS has conducted its own U.S. housing forecasts since 2007 when about that time, consensus forecasts became wildly inaccurate. Since then, WOOD MARKETS has repeatedly highlighted that a structural change has been occurring in the U.S. housing market and the use of traditional economic models will not work until much later in the cycle. As a result, WOOD MARKETS own housing forecasts have been decidedly more conservative as compared to all other economists’ forecasts. Since 2007, our housing and supply/demand forecasts have been much closer to the actual results as compared to the many dozens of professional economists and modelers.

The key take-away message is this: The Consensus forecasts continue to be too high – with some being way off the charts. For those that use housing forecasts in their business plans, using the consensus forecasts in 2014 of 770,000 single family housing starts would have resulted in forecasts of almost 2 billion board feet of extra lumber demand. This type of forecasted demand increase would have suggested a much tighter supply and demand balance, where higher lumber price forecasts could be another one of the wrong predictions.

And WOOD MARKETS’ U.S. housing forecast for 2016 (in WOOD MARKETS 2016) is once again lower than the Consensus forecast – no surprise here. And our consultants have a decidedly conservative tone to North America and Chinese demand as well as prices for 2016 – all predicted before any signs of the current global economic volatility started.

From International Wood Markets: https://www.woodmarkets.com/forecasters-struggle-for-accuracy-as-u-s-housing-starts-grew-steadily-in-2015/