by Web Editor | Dec 21, 2015 | News
New WOOD MARKETS five-year forecast calls for continued volatility as North American and global lumber markets continue to recover and grow.
In WOOD MARKETS’ new five-year forecast, the short-term outlook is that North American and global economies, as well as softwood lumber and panel markets, are all forecast to improve, but at a much slower pace than has been expected. What has also short-circuited the prospects of stronger demand is a slowdown in China and Japan, impacting export markets. And the new wildcard that caused U.S. dollar prices to plunge in 2015, especially in softwood lumber, was the rapid currency devaluations of almost all major lumber producers as compared to the U.S. dollar. All of these factors have changed the WOOD MARKETS outlook to one that expects more lacklustre demand and corresponding price growth through 2018. After that, it starts to look very good.
These details and further analysis of commodity lumber and panels was released last week in the report, WOOD MARKETS 2016 – The Solid Wood Products Outlook: 2016 to 2020 by International WOOD MARKETS Group, Vancouver BC.
The supply-side dynamics feature eroding sustainable timber harvests in key provinces in Canada, resulting in dramatically lower lumber production than in the previous decade. Canada’s total lumber output will start to flatten out by 2018 with no further increases expected – just as U.S. and global demand are expected to gain momentum.
On the U.S. side, the U.S. West Coast region continues to watch log export prices in China and Japan, as many domestic log prices are correlated with export prices – this can quickly tighten the wood supply for sawmills and plywood mills as export prices rise. The U.S. South is forecast to be the only region where any significant lumber and panel production will occur, mainly due its ample, under-utilized timberland base of southern yellow pine. As lumber and panel demand increases, it is forecast that the current depressed log prices will start to move higher to feed incremental wood consumption of the expected additional panel and sawmill production.
From Wood Markets: https://www.woodmarkets.com/global-malaise-in-demand-coupled-with-rising-production-stalls-price-movement-in-north-america/
by Web Editor | Jul 6, 2015 | News
APA – The Engineered Wood Association has released its 2015 Market Outlook report.
Similar to 2014, extremely harsh weather caused home building to stall in the eastern half of the U.S. during the first quarter of 2015. However, with mortgage rates below 4 percent, new home sales rose 9 percent versus the fourth quarter of 2014, an indication that new home demand is improving. Brighter employment prospects for young adults is leading them to head out on their own, adding to the strength in the demand for new apartment buildings. These forces point to the recovery in residential construction getting back on track in the second half of this year.
“The biggest changes in the economic environment since a year ago are the strength of the U.S. dollar, the drop in oil and gasoline prices, and efforts by central bankers to stimulate their economies by driving down long-term interest rates,” said Joe Elling, market research director for APA. “This mix of events is likely to support lower interest rates in the U.S. than what was expected a year ago at this time. We are still in an unprecedented situation with respect to Federal Reserve policy though, and I remain concerned about the ability of the Fed to return its balance sheet to a more normal state without a major disruption in financial markets here and abroad.”
Critical to the strength in the demand for new housing is the ability of young adults to have the economic wherewithal to be on their own and, ultimately, to be able to own a home. Despite very favorable affordability conditions from a monthly standpoint, tight lending standards and heavy student debt burdens are constricting that group’s home-buying power. These conditions are expected to persist through the rest of the decade; thus, as housing starts return to their anticipated 1.5 million level by 2018-2019, multifamily starts are expected to account for roughly 36 percent of the total.
Housing starts in Canada totaled just over 198,000 units in 2014. Canada did not experience a housing bubble like the U.S did, but, similar to the States, multifamily unit structures are accounting for a greater share of new residential construction compared to 10 years ago. The forecast calls for starts in Canada to run in the 180,000-190,000 unit range, with multifamily units accounting for around 40 percent of the starts.
From APA – The Engineered Wood Association: https://www.apawood.org/market-outlook-2015
by Web Editor | Mar 11, 2015 | News
The Canadian OSB manufacturer Ainsworth Lumber Co. has reported another strong growth in its overseas operations, which focus on serving Asian markets, in the 2014 financial year.
Shipments to Japan were just shy of the previous year at 224.1m sqft (3/8″ basis). Exports to other overseas markets more than tripled to 120.5m sqft. This upswing was primarily driven by the addition of China as a selling market last year.
Deliveries to the U.S. improved 10 % to 1.257bn sqft. Ainsworth reaped the rewards of the weaker Canadian dollar against the U.S. dollar here. However, Ainsworth sold just 152.3m sqft in Canada. Ainsworth’s total sales thus increased 9 % to 1.755bn sqft or about 1.550m m³ last year. Production rose by a similar amount to 1.751bn sqft.
This growth was primarily fueled by Ainsworth ramping up output at its mill in High Level, Alberta, which resumed operations in the third quarter of 2013. This factor offset longer market-related downtime than the previous year at its three other facilities.
From EUWID: https://www.euwid-wood-products.com/news/roundwoodsawnwood/single/archive/2015/march/Artikel/ainsworth-shipped-more-osb-to-asia-last-year.html
by Web Editor | Mar 9, 2015 | News
Norbord Ran All European Mills At Maximum Capacity In 2014
Norbord operated all of its European manufacturing sites at full steam in the 2014 financial year. The company invested in expanding and optimizing its particleboard mill in Cowie, Scotland and in two OSB mills in Inverness, Scotland and Genk, Belgium during the year.
These projects boosted its four mills’ capacity by around 170 million sqft (3/8’’ basis) or roughly 150,000 m³ to almost 1.8bn sqft or 1.6m m³ per year. Manufacturing edged 5 % higher to 1.690bn sqft or 1.495m m³. The two OSB mills and the particleboard and MDF mill in Cowie set new production records. All five locations continued operating until scheduled stoppages for maintenance and holidays.
Norbord thus said that its capacity utilization increased to 105 %. Sales were 6 % higher than in 2013 at 1.663bn sqft or 1.472m m³. Norbord improved its European revenues by almost 10 % to US$510m as a result. Higher sales volumes, increased particleboard and MDF prices as well as currency effects associated with the stronger pound Sterling against the US dollar more than made up for lower OSB prices.
Higher wage, raw material and maintenance costs also slimmed earnings. Operating income, which was expressed as adjusted EBITDA, still climbed to US$47m. The EBITDA margin weakened to 9.2 %.
From EUWID: euwid-wood-products.com
The monthly Panel World Industry Newsletter reaches over 3,000 who represent primary panel production operations.
Panel World is delivered six times per year to North American and international professionals, who represent primary panel production operations. Subscriptions are FREE to qualified individuals.
Complete the online form so we can direct you to the appropriate Sales Representative. Contact us today!
