by Web Editor | Mar 19, 2018 | News
Forisk projects U.S. softwood lumber consumption of 49.8 BBFT in 2018. This represents a 3.7% increase from our 2017 forecast of 48.1 BBFT and is 5.4% higher than 2016 actuals of 47.3 BBFT. Softwood lumber consumption increased every year since 2009, but remained 26.4% below the 2005 consumption high of 64.2 BBFT. U.S. softwood lumber production is forecasted to increase 5.0% to 35.6 billion board feet in 2018. The South drives this growth with production expected to rise 6.4% for the year, reaching 19.5 BBFT. This would be a new high for the region, surpassing the 19.0 BBFT of production in 2005. In the Base Case, the South’s share of national lumber production increases 0.8% to 55% in 2018.
We project U.S. softwood lumber self-sufficiency to reach 71.4% in 2018 as imports level off, and U.S. softwood production increases relative to consumption. We expect net imports to remain stable in 2018 due to physical constraints on Canadian lumber producers and their inability to grow exports to the U.S.: raging wildfires; stagnant softwood lumber capacity; increasing domestic softwood consumption; two new tariffs imposed on Canadian softwood lumber imports in 2017; and reductions in annual allowable cuts.
In the Forisk Base Case, total structural panel consumption increases from 31.2 billion square feet in 2017 to 36.6 billion square feet by 2022, increasing at a compound annual growth rate of 3.3%. OSB consumption is forecasted to rise 3.1% over 2017, while plywood consumption is forecast to increase 2.1%. For context, our October 2017 forecast was 3.5% lower than actuals, while our initial January 2017 forecast came in at 0.9% below actuals.
Each year we update a multi-phased study for estimating U.S. structural panel consumption. We test variables such as housing starts, GDP, population and others. Outputs from all approaches – regardless of the approach, variables, or form – tend to correlate highly with each other. Simpler models performed better; our final model had an R-squared of 0.97. Then, we evaluate results of our model relative to history and research by the USDA Forest Service and APA-The Engineered Wood Association prior to incorporating the projections into price forecasts for timber and delivered logs across the U.S.
From FORISK Consulting: https://forisk.com/blog/2018/03/15/forisk-research-quarterly-frq-excerpt-2018-lumber-structural-panel-projections/
by Web Editor | May 19, 2017 | News
The global plywood market is expected to expand by the end of 2017, according to Research Nester. Plywood will see increased demand from the construction of houses and other activities. Moreover, the economical price of the plywood will further drive the market.
The North American region has been consistently dominating the market globally, in terms of the market demand for plywood. This has been primarily due to high plywood consumption by the construction sector. It will be followed by North America and Europe occupying the second position in the market. Asia Pacific is anticipated to showcase robust growth in the next few years. Moreover, plywood market in Asia Pacific will further increase due to the massive growth in construction sector.
Apart from this, the countries with rich forests and woods such as India, Brazil and South Asian countries have the potential to be the key suppliers of plywood in the near future. Further, the growing indigenous demand for plywood in India as a result of rising disposable income among the growing middle and affluent class and the growing infrastructure in recent times is expected to make India an important consumer of plywood in the near future.
The growing demand for the plywood is driven by rising construction activities (both for residential and commercial purposes) and growing preferences for well-designed floors, home ceilings and walls. Robust population growth coupled with rising disposable income as well as rising preferences for branded plywood has expanded the plywood market at a global level.
From Woodworking Network: https://www.woodworkingnetwork.com/news/woodworking-industry-news/north-american-construction-drives-plywood-market-growth
by Web Editor | Dec 7, 2015 | News
Increasing housing starts and higher consumer spending will drive anticipated operating income growth for the global paper and forest products industry of 1%-3% in 2016, underpinning the current stable outlook for the sector for the next 12 months, says Moody’s Investors Service in a report published today. However, the outlook for the Printing and Writing Paper segment is negative as digital alternatives continue to curb paper demand.
“Our outlook for the global paper and forest products sector over the next year remains within our stable range as increasing home construction and economic growth drive wood product, packaging and market pulp earnings growth in the low single digits in 2016,” says Ed Sustar, a Moody’s Vice President — Senior Credit Officer and author of the report.
The outlook for the Paper Packaging and Tissue segment will be stable with operating earnings forecast to grow by 0%-4% on the back of increased (1) packaging demand, driven by modest economic uptick and stable food consumption; and (2) tissue demand, driven by population growth and improving hygiene standards.
Expected improvements to US housing starts will likely prop up end-market demand for timber, lumber, oriented strand board and engineered wood products in 2016, which will in turn support the stable outlook for the Wood Products/Timberland segment. However, lower Chinese infrastructure spending is pressuring North American log and lumber exports. Operating earnings in this sector are expected to grow by between 0%-4% in 2016.
Operating earnings growth for 2016 in the 1%-3% range will support the Market Pulp segment’s stable outlook. Prices across most grades (hardwood, softwood, dissolving pulp) will remain flat or decrease as capacity increases outpace demand. As additional pulp capacity comes on-line, inventory management across the fragmented global pulp industry will remain critical to balancing supply and demand.
From Moody’s: https://www.moodys.com/research/Moodys-Stable-2016-outlook-for-global-paper-and-forest-products–PR_340351
