by Web Editor | Aug 8, 2018 | News
A burgeoning industry based on a relatively new type of material may be coming to Minnesota. Known as mass timber, the material is an alternative to steel in building construction. While dozens of buildings constructed with the product are dotted around the country, the majority stand in the Pacific Northwest.
“This type of building product is new to the U.S.,” said Brian Brashaw, a program manager with the U.S. Forest Service. “It’s geared at taller buildings; it’s building more along the lines of four, five and six stories. That product is seeing a lot of growth in the United States.”
Now, local groups and governmental agencies are working on a plan to bring that industry to the Midwest. But before a production facility can set up shop in Minnesota, officials need to know if the right kind of raw materials can be produced in the region.
“This is a feasibility study where we’re taking a closer look at if the Midwest has the lumber production capacity and softwood lumber supply chain in place,” wrote Kristen Bergstrand, of the Minnesota Department of Natural Resources, in an email.
A survey is being sent to 11 sawmills in the region that will help gauge if the state can sustain a mass timber industry. APEX, the local business and economic development organization which is sending out the survey, wants to learn the grade and board footage that mills have produced for trees such as red pine, jack pine, spruce and balsam — all considered viable materials for mass timber.
Read more on this from the Duluth News Tribune at https://duluthnewstribune.com/business/manufacturing/4482202-minnesota-looking-attract-mass-timber-producers.
by Web Editor | Mar 19, 2018 | News
Forisk projects U.S. softwood lumber consumption of 49.8 BBFT in 2018. This represents a 3.7% increase from our 2017 forecast of 48.1 BBFT and is 5.4% higher than 2016 actuals of 47.3 BBFT. Softwood lumber consumption increased every year since 2009, but remained 26.4% below the 2005 consumption high of 64.2 BBFT. U.S. softwood lumber production is forecasted to increase 5.0% to 35.6 billion board feet in 2018. The South drives this growth with production expected to rise 6.4% for the year, reaching 19.5 BBFT. This would be a new high for the region, surpassing the 19.0 BBFT of production in 2005. In the Base Case, the South’s share of national lumber production increases 0.8% to 55% in 2018.
We project U.S. softwood lumber self-sufficiency to reach 71.4% in 2018 as imports level off, and U.S. softwood production increases relative to consumption. We expect net imports to remain stable in 2018 due to physical constraints on Canadian lumber producers and their inability to grow exports to the U.S.: raging wildfires; stagnant softwood lumber capacity; increasing domestic softwood consumption; two new tariffs imposed on Canadian softwood lumber imports in 2017; and reductions in annual allowable cuts.
In the Forisk Base Case, total structural panel consumption increases from 31.2 billion square feet in 2017 to 36.6 billion square feet by 2022, increasing at a compound annual growth rate of 3.3%. OSB consumption is forecasted to rise 3.1% over 2017, while plywood consumption is forecast to increase 2.1%. For context, our October 2017 forecast was 3.5% lower than actuals, while our initial January 2017 forecast came in at 0.9% below actuals.
Each year we update a multi-phased study for estimating U.S. structural panel consumption. We test variables such as housing starts, GDP, population and others. Outputs from all approaches – regardless of the approach, variables, or form – tend to correlate highly with each other. Simpler models performed better; our final model had an R-squared of 0.97. Then, we evaluate results of our model relative to history and research by the USDA Forest Service and APA-The Engineered Wood Association prior to incorporating the projections into price forecasts for timber and delivered logs across the U.S.
From FORISK Consulting: https://forisk.com/blog/2018/03/15/forisk-research-quarterly-frq-excerpt-2018-lumber-structural-panel-projections/
by Web Editor | Dec 18, 2017 | News
In WOOD MARKETS’ new five-year softwood lumber forecast, the continuation of U.S. duties on Canadian lumber exports to the U.S. are expected to cause more short-term market and price volatility. The preliminary duties launched earlier in 2017 rocked the U.S. market and more of the same is expected in 2018. As we predicted one year ago, the headline for last year’s WOOD MARKETS 2017 news release was bang on: “U.S. Import Duties on Canadian Lumber to Cause Market Chaos and Soaring Prices.” Indeed, they did. The WOOD MARKETS 2018 Outlook Report predicts more chaos and the chance of further record-breaking prices.
These details and further analysis of commodity lumber and structural panels was released earlier this week in the report, WOOD MARKETS 2018 – The Solid Wood Products Outlook: 2018 to 2022 by WOOD MARKETS/FEA Canada, Vancouver BC.
The recent announcement of final countervailing (CVD) and anti-dumping (ADD) duties on Canadian lumber exports to the U.S. will cause lumber prices to remain near record levels in 2018 and even higher at various points over the next five years. This is because Canadian exports to the U.S. are forecast to ease in 2018.
“Simply put,” indicated Russ Taylor, Managing Director, WOOD MARKETS/FEA Canada, “by restricting incremental Canadian lumber exports via import duties, there may not appear to be enough lumber supplies to adequately balance with projected U.S. demand. There will need to major increases in U.S. lumber capacity (which is starting to build), more offshore imports, and/or record-level prices to stimulate more supply. The question that we have seen coming for a number of years is: Where will the U.S. get all of the lumber it needs, and at what price?”
The impact of U.S. import duties on Canadian lumber production and exports has been developed from building a cost curve of Canadian producing regions from WOOD MARKETS’ Global Timber/Sawmill/Lumber Cost Benchmarking Report. From this, WOOD MARKETS has overlaid a cross-Canada timber supply availability map with delivered log and sawmill costs to determine which producing regions (and mills) are most impacted by 20.23% (“all-others”) import duties.
Read more on this from International Wood Markets at https://www.woodmarkets.com/news-release-record-level-lumber-prices-expected-2018-u-s-import-duties/.
by Web Editor | Dec 21, 2015 | News
New WOOD MARKETS five-year forecast calls for continued volatility as North American and global lumber markets continue to recover and grow.
In WOOD MARKETS’ new five-year forecast, the short-term outlook is that North American and global economies, as well as softwood lumber and panel markets, are all forecast to improve, but at a much slower pace than has been expected. What has also short-circuited the prospects of stronger demand is a slowdown in China and Japan, impacting export markets. And the new wildcard that caused U.S. dollar prices to plunge in 2015, especially in softwood lumber, was the rapid currency devaluations of almost all major lumber producers as compared to the U.S. dollar. All of these factors have changed the WOOD MARKETS outlook to one that expects more lacklustre demand and corresponding price growth through 2018. After that, it starts to look very good.
These details and further analysis of commodity lumber and panels was released last week in the report, WOOD MARKETS 2016 – The Solid Wood Products Outlook: 2016 to 2020 by International WOOD MARKETS Group, Vancouver BC.
The supply-side dynamics feature eroding sustainable timber harvests in key provinces in Canada, resulting in dramatically lower lumber production than in the previous decade. Canada’s total lumber output will start to flatten out by 2018 with no further increases expected – just as U.S. and global demand are expected to gain momentum.
On the U.S. side, the U.S. West Coast region continues to watch log export prices in China and Japan, as many domestic log prices are correlated with export prices – this can quickly tighten the wood supply for sawmills and plywood mills as export prices rise. The U.S. South is forecast to be the only region where any significant lumber and panel production will occur, mainly due its ample, under-utilized timberland base of southern yellow pine. As lumber and panel demand increases, it is forecast that the current depressed log prices will start to move higher to feed incremental wood consumption of the expected additional panel and sawmill production.
From Wood Markets: https://www.woodmarkets.com/global-malaise-in-demand-coupled-with-rising-production-stalls-price-movement-in-north-america/
