by Web Editor | Jun 11, 2018 | News
Hardwood manufacturers are looking at positive growth continuing in 2018, but they need to expect rising prices for both hardwood lumber and panel products.
According to a report from Forecon Inc., “Lumber prices for our major (by value) species have all shown heavy demand, and most have seen a consistent upward trend in price throughout 2017 and certainly coming into 2018.” Forecon Inc. is one of the oldest established professional forestry consulting firms operating in the hardwood regions of the Eastern United States.
Forecon is reporting high demand for ash lumber in the face of concerns about the emerald ash borer damaging ash timber resources. Another hardwood on the rise is black cherry, which is seeing higher demand, especially from export markets, particularly from China and other Asian countries. But there is also elevated demand in the domestic market.
There is continuing strong demand for hard maple, especially green lumber (not kiln-dried), and reports are that there has been a specific increase in demand from cabinet manufacturers. This is another case where strong export demand, especially in Asia, continues to boost the price. Soft maple is not in as much demand as hard maple, with prices actually dropping a bit in the first half of this year.
One of the steadiest and strongest species of all continues to be red oak, which has set record export levels in volume and dollars this past year, and both international and domestic are staying strong in 2018. Forecon predicts sustained high prices for oak, keeping prices high and possibly climbing even higher into the summer months.
Read more on this from Woodworking Network at https://www.woodworkingnetwork.com/news/woodworking-industry-news/higher-prices-seen-hardwood-trends.
by Web Editor | Jan 19, 2018 | News
Canada is in the appeals stage of its softwood lumber dispute after the U.S. Department of Commerce imposed final duties earlier this month.
“The Government of Canada will continue to vigorously defend our industry and its workers against protectionist trade practices,” Minister of Foreign Affairs Chrystia Freeland said in a statement. “U.S. duties on Canadian softwood lumber are unfair, unwarranted and troubling.”
“They are harmful to Canada’s lumber producers, workers, and communities, and they add to the cost of home building, renovations and other projects for American middle-class families,” Freeland said.
But despite duties, with record-high lumber prices and urgent demand from U.S. builders, Canadian lumber firms haven’t had to lay off staff or cut production at all. Canada’s softwood lumber exports to the U.S. have declined 8 percent since the duties were imposed, but because the wood itself is worth more, the industry hasn’t suffered.
VP of international trade and transportation for the Forest Products Association of Canada Joel Neuheimer said the higher price of wood and the insatiable demand from U.S. builders is helping keep the duties from pushing companies to lay off staff, cut production or even close down.
From Woodworking Network: https://www.woodworkingnetwork.com/news/canadian-news/canada-wont-back-down-vows-resist-softwood-duties?ss=news,news,woodworking_industry_news,news,almanac_market_data,news,canadian_news
by Web Editor | Dec 18, 2017 | News
In WOOD MARKETS’ new five-year softwood lumber forecast, the continuation of U.S. duties on Canadian lumber exports to the U.S. are expected to cause more short-term market and price volatility. The preliminary duties launched earlier in 2017 rocked the U.S. market and more of the same is expected in 2018. As we predicted one year ago, the headline for last year’s WOOD MARKETS 2017 news release was bang on: “U.S. Import Duties on Canadian Lumber to Cause Market Chaos and Soaring Prices.” Indeed, they did. The WOOD MARKETS 2018 Outlook Report predicts more chaos and the chance of further record-breaking prices.
These details and further analysis of commodity lumber and structural panels was released earlier this week in the report, WOOD MARKETS 2018 – The Solid Wood Products Outlook: 2018 to 2022 by WOOD MARKETS/FEA Canada, Vancouver BC.
The recent announcement of final countervailing (CVD) and anti-dumping (ADD) duties on Canadian lumber exports to the U.S. will cause lumber prices to remain near record levels in 2018 and even higher at various points over the next five years. This is because Canadian exports to the U.S. are forecast to ease in 2018.
“Simply put,” indicated Russ Taylor, Managing Director, WOOD MARKETS/FEA Canada, “by restricting incremental Canadian lumber exports via import duties, there may not appear to be enough lumber supplies to adequately balance with projected U.S. demand. There will need to major increases in U.S. lumber capacity (which is starting to build), more offshore imports, and/or record-level prices to stimulate more supply. The question that we have seen coming for a number of years is: Where will the U.S. get all of the lumber it needs, and at what price?”
The impact of U.S. import duties on Canadian lumber production and exports has been developed from building a cost curve of Canadian producing regions from WOOD MARKETS’ Global Timber/Sawmill/Lumber Cost Benchmarking Report. From this, WOOD MARKETS has overlaid a cross-Canada timber supply availability map with delivered log and sawmill costs to determine which producing regions (and mills) are most impacted by 20.23% (“all-others”) import duties.
Read more on this from International Wood Markets at https://www.woodmarkets.com/news-release-record-level-lumber-prices-expected-2018-u-s-import-duties/.
by Web Editor | Dec 13, 2017 | News
The likelihood of strong profits from the wood products business, alongside higher prices and growth in paper packaging from increased e-commerce demand, will help to offset the secular declines in the printing and writing paper segment, says Moody’s Investors Service in its annual sector outlook published recently. As a result, the outlook for the global paper and forest products sector will remain stable in 2018.
“The stable outlook for paper and forest products globally next year is underpinned by an expected 2%-4% growth of our rated paper and forest products companies, as strength in the wood products and paper packaging subsectors offset decreased demand for commodity paper as the shift to digital-first alternatives continues,” says Ed Sustar, a Moody’s Senior Vice President and author of the report.
On a subsector basis, the positive outlook for wood products and timberland is buoyed by improving strong end-market demand for timber, lumber, oriented strand board (OSB) and engineered wood products as US housing starts increase about 6%, or approximately 1.28 million units, in 2018.
Bolstered by the robust demand emanating from the US homebuilding market, average lumber prices are expected to remain strong, with increased production capacity aligning to support the demand, Moody’s says. Nevertheless, analysts caution that the tight lumber markets will allow countervailing anti-dumping duties assessed on Canadian lumber exported to the US to be passed on to consumers. The issuers most expected to benefit from a combination of higher lumber prices and little-to-no lumber tariffs include Potlatch Corporation, Georgia-Pacific, Weyerhaeuser Company and Rayonier Inc.
From Moody’s Investors Service: https://www.moodys.com/research/Moodys-Wood-product-growth-supports-2018-stable-outlook-offsetting-commodity–PR_377021
by Web Editor | Jan 22, 2016 | News
The U.S. Census Bureau & the Department of Housing & Urban Development released its December and total 2015 statistics on new residential starts in the U.S. There were no real surprises with the data, but predicting U.S. housing starts has been virtually impossible for analysts and economists.
WOOD MARKETS has conducted its own U.S. housing forecasts since 2007 when about that time, consensus forecasts became wildly inaccurate. Since then, WOOD MARKETS has repeatedly highlighted that a structural change has been occurring in the U.S. housing market and the use of traditional economic models will not work until much later in the cycle. As a result, WOOD MARKETS own housing forecasts have been decidedly more conservative as compared to all other economists’ forecasts. Since 2007, our housing and supply/demand forecasts have been much closer to the actual results as compared to the many dozens of professional economists and modelers.
The key take-away message is this: The Consensus forecasts continue to be too high – with some being way off the charts. For those that use housing forecasts in their business plans, using the consensus forecasts in 2014 of 770,000 single family housing starts would have resulted in forecasts of almost 2 billion board feet of extra lumber demand. This type of forecasted demand increase would have suggested a much tighter supply and demand balance, where higher lumber price forecasts could be another one of the wrong predictions.
And WOOD MARKETS’ U.S. housing forecast for 2016 (in WOOD MARKETS 2016) is once again lower than the Consensus forecast – no surprise here. And our consultants have a decidedly conservative tone to North America and Chinese demand as well as prices for 2016 – all predicted before any signs of the current global economic volatility started.
From International Wood Markets: https://www.woodmarkets.com/forecasters-struggle-for-accuracy-as-u-s-housing-starts-grew-steadily-in-2015/
