by Web Editor | Mar 19, 2018 | News
Forisk projects U.S. softwood lumber consumption of 49.8 BBFT in 2018. This represents a 3.7% increase from our 2017 forecast of 48.1 BBFT and is 5.4% higher than 2016 actuals of 47.3 BBFT. Softwood lumber consumption increased every year since 2009, but remained 26.4% below the 2005 consumption high of 64.2 BBFT. U.S. softwood lumber production is forecasted to increase 5.0% to 35.6 billion board feet in 2018. The South drives this growth with production expected to rise 6.4% for the year, reaching 19.5 BBFT. This would be a new high for the region, surpassing the 19.0 BBFT of production in 2005. In the Base Case, the South’s share of national lumber production increases 0.8% to 55% in 2018.
We project U.S. softwood lumber self-sufficiency to reach 71.4% in 2018 as imports level off, and U.S. softwood production increases relative to consumption. We expect net imports to remain stable in 2018 due to physical constraints on Canadian lumber producers and their inability to grow exports to the U.S.: raging wildfires; stagnant softwood lumber capacity; increasing domestic softwood consumption; two new tariffs imposed on Canadian softwood lumber imports in 2017; and reductions in annual allowable cuts.
In the Forisk Base Case, total structural panel consumption increases from 31.2 billion square feet in 2017 to 36.6 billion square feet by 2022, increasing at a compound annual growth rate of 3.3%. OSB consumption is forecasted to rise 3.1% over 2017, while plywood consumption is forecast to increase 2.1%. For context, our October 2017 forecast was 3.5% lower than actuals, while our initial January 2017 forecast came in at 0.9% below actuals.
Each year we update a multi-phased study for estimating U.S. structural panel consumption. We test variables such as housing starts, GDP, population and others. Outputs from all approaches – regardless of the approach, variables, or form – tend to correlate highly with each other. Simpler models performed better; our final model had an R-squared of 0.97. Then, we evaluate results of our model relative to history and research by the USDA Forest Service and APA-The Engineered Wood Association prior to incorporating the projections into price forecasts for timber and delivered logs across the U.S.
From FORISK Consulting: https://forisk.com/blog/2018/03/15/forisk-research-quarterly-frq-excerpt-2018-lumber-structural-panel-projections/
by Web Editor | Mar 12, 2018 | News
Weyerhaeuser has announced that its Wood Products division ended the fourth quarter of 2017 with much better revenues and earnings than one year earlier. Average sales prices had increased in all product segments, with the highest growth rate of almost a third reported for OSB. Sales volumes, which include amounts purchased through the Distribution division, improved for the most part. Softwood plywood (-15.9%) and MDF (-22.4%) were the only products to see lower sales. The division’s consolidated revenues thus rose 19.0% to US$1.228bn.
EBITDA adjusted for extraordinary items from OSB activities leapt to US$104m. The division as a whole saw its EBITDA adjusted for extraordinary items almost double to US$258m. As in the two previous quarters, operating income was hit by high costs for the remediation of defective I-joists and ended up at US$180m. The company created reserves of US$50m to resolve this issue in the fourth quarter. These reserves now add up to US$290m. Weyerhaeuser reported that remediation work had been completed in 99% of affected new buildings by the end of January.
From EUWID: https://www.euwid-wood-products.com/news/miscellaneous/single/Artikel/weyerhaeuser-posts-growth-from-wood-products.html
by Web Editor | Feb 10, 2017 | News
A new report from market research firm Allied Market Research (AMR) projects that the global engineered wood market is estimated to reach $41.273 billion by 2022, growing at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 24.8 percent from 2016 – 2022. North America and Europe, being the developed markets, account for nearly 70 percent of global engineered wood production, while still maintaining high CAGRs.
Engineered wood demand is expected to remain high during the forecast period as it is an alternative to concrete and hardwood. Engineered wood products are widely used by architects, builders, code officials, and building designers aware of energy-efficient framing practices that conserve energy, speed-up construction, cut labor cost, and reduce waste.
“The rising popularity of engineered wood over hardwood is attributable to its cost-effectiveness and eco-friendly aspect,” says AMR research analyst Yogiata Sharma. “Also, stringent regulations with regards CO2 emission and rapid deforestation are factors likely to propel the adoption of engineered wood. Despite the reservations, surrounding its usage due to safety concerns, composite wood has proved to be a huge commercial success.”
The market is expected to move at a higher pace in Europe and North America, owing to high disposable income and widespread awareness of the benefits of engineered wood among the populace. The engineered wood industry in Europe will be driven by the rise in demand for engineered timber, substantial use of resources, and increased import of raw wood from Asia-Pacific and LAMEA.
From Woodworking Network: https://www.woodworkingnetwork.com/news/almanac-market-data/engineered-wood-market-reach-413-billion-globally-2022?ss=news,news,woodworking_industry_news,news,almanac_market_data,news,canadian_news
