by Web Editor | Jun 11, 2018 | News
Hardwood manufacturers are looking at positive growth continuing in 2018, but they need to expect rising prices for both hardwood lumber and panel products.
According to a report from Forecon Inc., “Lumber prices for our major (by value) species have all shown heavy demand, and most have seen a consistent upward trend in price throughout 2017 and certainly coming into 2018.” Forecon Inc. is one of the oldest established professional forestry consulting firms operating in the hardwood regions of the Eastern United States.
Forecon is reporting high demand for ash lumber in the face of concerns about the emerald ash borer damaging ash timber resources. Another hardwood on the rise is black cherry, which is seeing higher demand, especially from export markets, particularly from China and other Asian countries. But there is also elevated demand in the domestic market.
There is continuing strong demand for hard maple, especially green lumber (not kiln-dried), and reports are that there has been a specific increase in demand from cabinet manufacturers. This is another case where strong export demand, especially in Asia, continues to boost the price. Soft maple is not in as much demand as hard maple, with prices actually dropping a bit in the first half of this year.
One of the steadiest and strongest species of all continues to be red oak, which has set record export levels in volume and dollars this past year, and both international and domestic are staying strong in 2018. Forecon predicts sustained high prices for oak, keeping prices high and possibly climbing even higher into the summer months.
Read more on this from Woodworking Network at https://www.woodworkingnetwork.com/news/woodworking-industry-news/higher-prices-seen-hardwood-trends.
by Web Editor | Jan 22, 2016 | News
The U.S. Census Bureau & the Department of Housing & Urban Development released its December and total 2015 statistics on new residential starts in the U.S. There were no real surprises with the data, but predicting U.S. housing starts has been virtually impossible for analysts and economists.
WOOD MARKETS has conducted its own U.S. housing forecasts since 2007 when about that time, consensus forecasts became wildly inaccurate. Since then, WOOD MARKETS has repeatedly highlighted that a structural change has been occurring in the U.S. housing market and the use of traditional economic models will not work until much later in the cycle. As a result, WOOD MARKETS own housing forecasts have been decidedly more conservative as compared to all other economists’ forecasts. Since 2007, our housing and supply/demand forecasts have been much closer to the actual results as compared to the many dozens of professional economists and modelers.
The key take-away message is this: The Consensus forecasts continue to be too high – with some being way off the charts. For those that use housing forecasts in their business plans, using the consensus forecasts in 2014 of 770,000 single family housing starts would have resulted in forecasts of almost 2 billion board feet of extra lumber demand. This type of forecasted demand increase would have suggested a much tighter supply and demand balance, where higher lumber price forecasts could be another one of the wrong predictions.
And WOOD MARKETS’ U.S. housing forecast for 2016 (in WOOD MARKETS 2016) is once again lower than the Consensus forecast – no surprise here. And our consultants have a decidedly conservative tone to North America and Chinese demand as well as prices for 2016 – all predicted before any signs of the current global economic volatility started.
From International Wood Markets: https://www.woodmarkets.com/forecasters-struggle-for-accuracy-as-u-s-housing-starts-grew-steadily-in-2015/
