by Web Editor | Dec 18, 2017 | News
In WOOD MARKETS’ new five-year softwood lumber forecast, the continuation of U.S. duties on Canadian lumber exports to the U.S. are expected to cause more short-term market and price volatility. The preliminary duties launched earlier in 2017 rocked the U.S. market and more of the same is expected in 2018. As we predicted one year ago, the headline for last year’s WOOD MARKETS 2017 news release was bang on: “U.S. Import Duties on Canadian Lumber to Cause Market Chaos and Soaring Prices.” Indeed, they did. The WOOD MARKETS 2018 Outlook Report predicts more chaos and the chance of further record-breaking prices.
These details and further analysis of commodity lumber and structural panels was released earlier this week in the report, WOOD MARKETS 2018 – The Solid Wood Products Outlook: 2018 to 2022 by WOOD MARKETS/FEA Canada, Vancouver BC.
The recent announcement of final countervailing (CVD) and anti-dumping (ADD) duties on Canadian lumber exports to the U.S. will cause lumber prices to remain near record levels in 2018 and even higher at various points over the next five years. This is because Canadian exports to the U.S. are forecast to ease in 2018.
“Simply put,” indicated Russ Taylor, Managing Director, WOOD MARKETS/FEA Canada, “by restricting incremental Canadian lumber exports via import duties, there may not appear to be enough lumber supplies to adequately balance with projected U.S. demand. There will need to major increases in U.S. lumber capacity (which is starting to build), more offshore imports, and/or record-level prices to stimulate more supply. The question that we have seen coming for a number of years is: Where will the U.S. get all of the lumber it needs, and at what price?”
The impact of U.S. import duties on Canadian lumber production and exports has been developed from building a cost curve of Canadian producing regions from WOOD MARKETS’ Global Timber/Sawmill/Lumber Cost Benchmarking Report. From this, WOOD MARKETS has overlaid a cross-Canada timber supply availability map with delivered log and sawmill costs to determine which producing regions (and mills) are most impacted by 20.23% (“all-others”) import duties.
Read more on this from International Wood Markets at https://www.woodmarkets.com/news-release-record-level-lumber-prices-expected-2018-u-s-import-duties/.
by Web Editor | Dec 13, 2017 | News
The likelihood of strong profits from the wood products business, alongside higher prices and growth in paper packaging from increased e-commerce demand, will help to offset the secular declines in the printing and writing paper segment, says Moody’s Investors Service in its annual sector outlook published recently. As a result, the outlook for the global paper and forest products sector will remain stable in 2018.
“The stable outlook for paper and forest products globally next year is underpinned by an expected 2%-4% growth of our rated paper and forest products companies, as strength in the wood products and paper packaging subsectors offset decreased demand for commodity paper as the shift to digital-first alternatives continues,” says Ed Sustar, a Moody’s Senior Vice President and author of the report.
On a subsector basis, the positive outlook for wood products and timberland is buoyed by improving strong end-market demand for timber, lumber, oriented strand board (OSB) and engineered wood products as US housing starts increase about 6%, or approximately 1.28 million units, in 2018.
Bolstered by the robust demand emanating from the US homebuilding market, average lumber prices are expected to remain strong, with increased production capacity aligning to support the demand, Moody’s says. Nevertheless, analysts caution that the tight lumber markets will allow countervailing anti-dumping duties assessed on Canadian lumber exported to the US to be passed on to consumers. The issuers most expected to benefit from a combination of higher lumber prices and little-to-no lumber tariffs include Potlatch Corporation, Georgia-Pacific, Weyerhaeuser Company and Rayonier Inc.
From Moody’s Investors Service: https://www.moodys.com/research/Moodys-Wood-product-growth-supports-2018-stable-outlook-offsetting-commodity–PR_377021
by Web Editor | Dec 11, 2017 | News
The United States International Trade Commission (ITC) ruled that the U.S. lumber industry is materially injured by Canadian government subsidies of their softwood lumber industry.
Voting 4-0 in favor of the U.S. lumber industry, the ITC ruling follows a U.S. Department of Commerce determination that imports of softwood lumber from Canada are sold in the United States at less than fair value and subsidized by the government of Canada. The antidumping and countervailing duties on imports of Canadian softwood lumber products have been collected pending the final demermination of the ITC.
“The U.S. Lumber Coalition fully supports the enforcement of America’s trade laws. The evidence presented to the ITC was clear – the massive subsidies that the Canadian government provides to its lumber industry and the dumping of lumber products into the U.S. market by Canadian companies cause real harm to U.S. producers and workers,” said U.S. Lumber Coalition Co-Chair and Co-President of Pleasant River Lumber Company, Jason Brochu.
“Now, with a level playing field, the U.S. lumber industry, and the 350,000 hardworking men and women who support it, can have the chance to compete fairly.” Pleasant River stamps each board with a Made in USA label at its Sanford, Maine sawmill.
Under the Trump Administration, the Department of Commerce, which operates the International Trade Commission, has been ratcheting up pressure on U.S. trading partners over what it sees as subsidies across several industries, beginning the forest products sector. Last week China was hit with a formal determination by the ITC that it subsidized plywood exports to the U.S., effectively dumping low-priced plywood to the detriment of the domestic manufacturers. The Department of Commerce is expected to pursue solar panel manufacturers in China in coming weeks.
From Woodworking Network: https://www.woodworkingnetwork.com/news/woodworking-industry-news/canadian-lumber-subsidies-harmed-us-producers-trade-commission-rules?ss=news,news,woodworking_industry_news,news,almanac_market_data,news,canadian_news
by Web Editor | Mar 27, 2017 | News
The Coalition for Fair Trade of Hardwood Plywood has filed “critical circumstances” petitions with the Department of Commerce to stop recent shipments of Chinese hardwood plywood imports into the U.S., according to the Hardwood Plywood and Veneer Association.
HPVA said that the shipments are being made in an attempt to enter the market before anti-dumping and countervailing duty orders are imposed.
If the coalition’s actions are successful, anti-dumping and countervailing duties will be imposed 90 days earlier, subjecting Chinese hardwood plywood imports to duties of up to 100 percent or more.
Commerce’s preliminary determinations in the countervailing duty case and anti-dumping case are due no later than April 17 and June 16, respectively. If critical circumstances are found, Chinese hardwood plywood imported as early as January 17 will be subject to countervailing duties, and Chinese hardwood plywood imported as early as March 16 will be subject to anti-dumping duties.
See https://www.hpva.org/ and https://hardwoodplywoodfairtrade.com/ for more information.
From Woodworking Network: https://www.woodworkingnetwork.com/news/woodworking-industry-news/us-producers-seek-new-duties-against-chinese-plywood?ss=news,news,woodworking_industry_news,news,almanac_market_data,news,canadian_news
